Based on your responses, the best opportunity for you is to access specialized opportunities in the lower middle market in private credit. Watch our CIO, Mike Kelly, break down the opportunity and see our recent research in the area.

Access differentiated opportunities in
private credit

Recent headlines suggest concerns, but opportunity remains if you know where to look.
CIO perspective

the private credit divide

While recent headlines have put private credit under the spotlight, we believe the market's underlying fundamentals remain sound. In our view, private credit risk is increasingly concentrated in specific pockets of the market, leaving attractive opportunities in areas beyond those segments.

Watch as CIO Mike Kelly unpacks how risk and return potential differ across market segments and why being selective matters more than ever.

Systemic leverage doesn't point to a bubble

DESPITE CONCERNS, THE MARKET REMAINS HEALTHY

Tell tale signs from past bubbles and financial crises remain absent from today's market. Economic growth is strong and corporate earnings remain resilient, supporting borrower health and broad credit market performance.

There are no signs of excess systemic leverage. Corporate debt growth is in line with household debt and remains well below GDP growth. In fact, private sector debt—the combination of corporate debt and household debt—as a share of GDP is declining, not rising as it typically does ahead of market bubbles.

Cumulative growth since year-end 2019

Source: Macrobond, Future Standard as of September 30, 2025, latest data available.

now is the time to specialize

crowding, not crisis

Many of the concerns currently surrounding private credit can be addressed not by avoiding the asset class, but by being selective within it.

Capital crowding reshaped risk‑reward dynamics across the market, creating a growing divide between crowded large‑cap strategies. Less competitive segments such as core and lower U.S. middle market where underwriting discipline and pricing power earn an income premium.

Fundraising by $5B+ funds
Only 12 funds have accounted for more than 40% of global private credit closed end fundraising over the last 18 months.
WHERE COMPETITION SHIFTED THE BALANCE OF RISK AND RETURN

THE FIVE PRESSURE POINTS SHAPING PRIVATE CREDIT

To understand where risk‑reward tradeoffs have shifted, we focus on five areas where competition is most evident and where differences across market segments are most pronounced.
FACTOR HEADLINE CONCERN MARKET REALITY LOWER MIDDLE MARKET DIFFERENCE
Pricing Spread compression Private credit spread premium persists New-issue spreads
Large-cap: 425bps–500bps
Lower middle market: 525bps–600bps
Non-sponsored: 600bps–700bps
Portfolio composition High software exposure driving elevated default risk Technology and software sectors have yet to see broad credit deterioration Tech exposure
Large-cap: 22%
Lower middle market: 11%
Protections Covenant erosion Private credit covenant structures are much tighter than in the broadly syndicated loan (BSL) market Cov-lite prevalence
Large-cap: 60%
Lower middle market: 3%
Produce (leverage) Elevated deal leverage PE sponsor equity contributions are near a record high Avg. Debt/EBITDA
Large-cap: 6.2x
Lower middle market: 4.2x
Payment-in-kind (PIK) Rising PIK prevalence Risk implications vary depending on PIK structure PIK % of income
Large-cap: 7.6%
Lower middle market: 5.2%
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVE

IMPLEMENTING A SPECIALIZED APPROACH

Head of Global Credit, Andrew Beckman, and his team bring decades of experience across multiple credit cycles, with backgrounds in distressed and special situations investing that shape their approach today. The team built their careers in segments where competition is lower, deal structures provide stronger protections, and underwriting discipline matters most.

Watch the webinar for a closer look at the Global Credit team’s specialized approach.

We’re not earning a premium by stretching risk; we’re earning it by working where fewer lenders are willing or able to do the work.”
Andrew Beckman
Head of Global Credit
disclosures

This information is educational in nature and does not constitute a financial promotion, investment advice or an inducement or incitement to participate in any product, offering or investment. Future Standard is not adopting, making a recommendation for or endorsing any investment strategy or particular security. All views, opinions and positions expressed herein are that of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions or positions of Future Standard. All opinions are subject to change without notice, and you should always obtain current information and perform due diligence before participating in any investment. Future Standard does not provide legal or tax advice and the information herein should not be considered legal or tax advice. Tax laws and regulations are complex and subject to change, which can materially impact any investment result. Future Standard cannot guarantee that the information herein is accurate, complete, or timely. Future Standard makes no warranties with regard to such information or results obtained by its use, and disclaims any liability arising out of your use of, or any tax position taken in reliance on, such information.

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