• The Fed’s recent rate hike reinforced a higher-for-longer rate environment, increasing the importance of fundamentals over financial engineering in driving private equity returns.
• Middle market strategies may be particularly well-positioned in this environment, given their greater emphasis on growing and improving businesses.
• Sponsor-to-sponsor and family-to-sponsor transactions, both closely associated with the middle market, have historically generated the highest multiples on invested capital (MOIC), outperforming transaction types often associated with large and mega-buyout strategies (public-to-private and carve-out).
• In addition, sponsor-to-sponsor and family-to-sponsor transactions have consistently delivered stronger revenue and employment growth relative to other transaction types.
• While the largest private equity segments attract the most attention and capital, historical results suggest that middle market strategies may offer a more fundamentals-driven path to value creation.

This week’s chart is drawn from Mapping the Markets: Q3 2026, a quarterly chartbook from Future Standard’s Investment Research team showcasing the most important charts shaping the investment landscape. Refer to it for more charts and insights across public and private markets.