In this episode, Future Standard’s Investment Research team members Alan Flannigan and Andrew Korz unpack the key themes from their Q2 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook: Sturdy under strain. They examine the state of the U.S. economy entering the conflict in the Middle East, discuss the long-term implications of a shifting global landscape, and provide views on the most pressing macro themes in Q2.

The episode also features a discussion with Jason Cole, Head of Public Policy at Future Standard, who provides on-the-ground perspective on the Iran conflict, evolving tariff authorities, and Federal Reserve leadership changes.

Alan Flannigan: Policy uncertainty. Every market analyst on the street now has at least one tally in the win column this year, but few, if any, were bold enough to predict that this year would feature a direct military conflict, a war with Iran. As investors are now painfully aware, Iran is not only a major oil producer, but its geography flanks either side of the strait of Hormuz. A passageway just 35 miles wide at its narrowest, through which 20 million barrels per day of Gulf oil flow through to the rest of the world.

Most relevant for the U.S. West Texas intermediate crude spiked from just under $60 a barrel at the start of the year to a high of $113 before falling back to around $90 a barrel as of 11:04 on April 15th. Similarly, U.S. stocks sold off about 10% before gaining back roughly 11% returning to near all-time highs as of 11:05 on 4/15. Those of you watching the video version of this introduction will note I glanced to confirm and bookmark the time on those figures as they have been subject to change and rapidly. This is emblematic of the heightened uncertainty associated with the current macro environment.

More broadly highlighted by this conflict, but unspecific to it, policy and geopolitical uncertainty are now of much greater importance for investors. In our view, this reflects our long-held thesis that the state of play for the world economy is changing at a foundational level, from cooperation to competition, efficiency to resilience, and interdependence to self-reliance.

How well positioned is the U.S. economy for this new regime? If the classic phase by phase economic cycle against which modern portfolio theory was developed is truly giving way to a less linear supply shock and event-driven risk framework, investors will likely need to adapt their approach. We bring this all together in our Q2 2026 U.S. economic outlook: Sturdy under strain.

I’m joined today as always by my colleague and partner in podcasting and investment research, Senior Vice President Andrew Korz. Sturdy under strain. Not only is that the title of the piece, but it’s what’s required to write an outlook within the current macro regime.

What’s been your thought process going into an outlook this quarter?