Since the end of 2019, growth in private sector debt has lagged well behind GDP growth, undermining the case for a credit bubble.
authors
Christopher Bole
Christopher Bole
Vice President, Financial Writer
Cumulative growth since year-end 2019
Chart comparing corporate and household debt growth since 2019 to growth in nominal GDP over the same period.
Source: Macrobond, Future Standard as of September 30, 2025, latest data available.
  • Credit has come under increased scrutiny over the past year, first amid fears of a private credit bubble and more recently due to concerns about credit quality, particularly among software companies facing potential AI-driven disruption.
  • Beneath the headlines, the data tell a different story: A resilient U.S. economy continues to support constructive fundamentals, while aggregate debt growth remains measured rather than excessive.
  • Since year-end 2019, aggregate U.S. corporate debt outstanding has increased by approximately 30%, roughly in line with household debt (29%) and well below nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth (42%). As discussed in prior research, credit bubbles typically form when debt growth far outpaces economic growth. Today, the opposite is true, with private-sector debt-to-GDP actually shrinking.
  • While select segments of the economy may face headwinds from policy shifts and geopolitical uncertainty, there is little evidence of broad-based credit overextension today.

For more insights on private credit, tune in to our latest podcast episode, Private credit: Looking beyond the headlines.

contributing authors
Christopher Bole
Christopher Bole
Vice President, Financial Writer
footnotes + disclosures

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