Despite softening private credit sentiment, the lower and core middle market continue to offer a differentiated and less competitive opportunity set.
authors
Christopher Bole
Christopher Bole
Vice President, Financial Writer
Share of unique issuers by market segment
Chart comparing unique issuers based on loans to issuers with EBITDA of $100M or above and those with EBITDA of $40 million or less.
Source: Cliffwater, as of March 31, 2026.
  • As private credit inflows accelerated from 2021–2025, capital became increasingly concentrated at the upper end of the market, with a small number of mega-lenders rapidly scaling direct lending origination volumes and deal sizes.
  • To meet their significant deployment needs, the largest lenders have often effectively re-syndicated to compete with the public loan market.
  • As a result, club financings including five or more participating lenders have become commonplace, leading to substantial overlap in the portfolio holdings of mega-lenders’ direct lending funds.
  • As of Q1 2026, just 39% of upper middle market issuers (>$100B of EBITDA) were unique to a single portfolio compared to 80% of lower middle market issuers (<$40M of EBITDA).1
  • While investors may allocate across multiple funds and managers, growing overlap in large-cap direct lending portfolios can limit the diversification benefits of those allocations. By comparison, the lower and core middle market remain less concentrated and offer access to a broader and more differentiated set of issuers.

Today’s chart of the week highlights a key trend impacting private markets today. Explore this insight and more in our 2026 Midyear Private Markets Outlook: Between the tackles: Picking running lanes in an uneven market.

contributing authors
Christopher Bole
Christopher Bole
Vice President, Financial Writer
footnotes + disclosures
  1. Cliffwater, as of Q1 2026.

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